Disease Experts Warn COVID-19 Could Take Almost Two Years To Eradicate

(FamilyRetirementClub.Com)- Americans hoping for a quick return to normal life are probably getting ahead of themselves, according to a new report released Thursday by a team of pandemic experts.
They say the coronavirus is likely to continue spreading for at least another 18 months to two years, and will ultimately end up infecting roughly 60% to 70% of the population.
“The idea that this is going to be done soon defies microbiology,” said Mike Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
The report was written by Osterholm in conjunction with other infectious disease experts. The main reason for their projection is that no one has immunity from it, since COVID-19 is a new virus. That’s why it will “likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population.”
This latest report used reports from other popular coronavirus models, as well as historical data on pandemics and published reports about the medical details of COVID-19.
According to Marc Lipsitch, one of the authors of the report who is an epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health:
“I have said for a long time that when you are trying to understand how infectious disease is going to unfold, you should rely on history as well as models.”
Because of the much higher average number of people infected by each COVID-19 patient than, say, the flu, it’ll take longer to eradicate than other viruses. The report read:
“More people will need to get infected and become immune before the pandemic can end. Based on the most recent flu pandemics, this outbreak will likely last 18 to 24 months.”
“This is going to continue to be a rolling situation throughout the world, not just our country, for the months ahead,” Osterholm said Friday morning. “Expect many more New Yorks to occur. It’s very likely they will.
“This is the only disease in the last 100 years that has gone from not being in the top 75 causes of death to becoming the number one cause of death in this country every day.”
While an effective vaccine would do wonders for stopping the pandemic, Osterholm doesn’t believe it’s realistic that one will be available by early next year, saying:
“I like to count on having a vaccine, but we have to plan as if we might not have one because that surely is an option on the table for now.”
Osterholm and the other authors of the report presented three possible scenarios for the outcome of the pandemic, but they said governments need to prepare for the worst-case scenario. That scenario predicted a larger “wave” of outbreak in the fall or winter, and then another small wave or two sometime next year.
As they wrote:
“This pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic.”